Senior Machine Learning Scientist Forecasting

About the Role

Penguin Random House, the world's largest trade publishing company, is seeking a Senior Machine Learning Scientist specializing in Forecasting. This role is critical for our business, impacting demand planning, inventory management, supply chain orchestration, and resource allocation. You will own the end-to-end forecasting systems, from model development to deployment and monitoring, collaborating closely with business stakeholders, platform engineers, and the forecasting group. We foster a mature machine learning practice with robust infrastructure, supported by data warehouse and DevOps partners. We are adopting AI-accelerated development and utilize modern coding tools like Claude Code to enhance efficiency, with rigorous quality gates including tests, reproducible workflows, and measurable improvements in model performance and reliability. Experience with Claude Code or agentic workflows is a plus, but we value strong fundamentals and adaptability.

Specific Responsibilities

• Own end-to-end forecasting systems: model development, evaluation, and production operation (deployment partnership, monitoring, refresh cadence, reliability, and iteration).
• Build forecasting models across horizons and segments, selecting appropriate approaches and improving both accuracy and stakeholder usability.
• Create and maintain a forecasting evaluation harness for repeatable, production-safe quality, including backtesting, error analysis, uncertainty quantification, and automated checks.
• Develop agentic workflows to automate repetitive forecasting tasks like feature generation, backtest reporting, regression detection, and documentation, ensuring human review and measurable quality gates.
• Define success metrics tied to business outcomes and clearly communicate assumptions, limitations, and risks.
• Partner with stakeholders across operations, supply chain, inventory management, finance, and marketing to translate needs into technical plans and measurable impact.

Qualifications

• 5+ years of professional experience in machine learning or applied data science, including shipping models into production or operational workflows.
• Strong forecasting expertise, including time-series methods, feature engineering, and rigorous evaluation/backtesting.
• Solid probability and statistics fundamentals; comfortable with probabilistic forecasting and explaining uncertainty.
• Proficiency in Python and SQL; ability to write production-quality, testable software.
• Strong communication and cross-functional collaboration skills with non-technical stakeholders.

Preferred Qualifications

• PhD in a quantitative discipline or equivalent practical experience.
• Experience with probabilistic forecasting, hierarchical forecasting, and calibration techniques.
• Experience building ML system evaluation infrastructure (tests, regression checks, data validation, monitoring/alerting).
• Experience using AI-assisted and agentic development workflows responsibly.
• Experience integrating forecasting with optimization or decision science.

Important Application Information

Candidates selected for the first round of interviews must show photo ID on camera. Final interviews will be conducted in person at a Penguin Random House location. The salary range for this position is $160,000 - $210,000 annually, plus eligibility for an annual profit award or bonus. Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis and will be accepted through April 2, 2026, or until the role is filled. We encourage early applications. Please include your resume and cover letter. Review our applicant resources and FAQs pages before applying. Key skills/competency

• Machine Learning
• Forecasting
• Time Series Analysis
• Python
• SQL
• Data Science
• Production Deployment
• Statistical Modeling
• Agentic Workflows
• Cross-functional Collaboration